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The war in Ukraine is at a critical juncture. Kyiv has been given permission to use western-supplied Atacms and Storm Shadow missiles against targets inside Russia. It did so as soon as that permission was granted, with strikes against Russian military facilities in the Bryansk and Kursk regions. Moscow’s response to the strikes has been twofold. First, the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, approved changes to his country’s nuclear doctrine to lower the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons. It also launched an intermediate-range ballistic missile – Oreshnik , or Hazel Tree – at an arms factory in the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. This – so far carefully calibrated and choreographed – tit-for-tat indicates a further, gradual escalation of the war effort by both sides. It has been accompanied by a steady advance of Russian forces in eastern Ukraine and a continuation of the Kremlin’s efforts to cause maximum damage to Ukraine’s critical infrastructure. Both sides are acting in anticipation of Donald Trump’s inauguration in January, Trump has repeatedly committed himself to ending the war in Ukraine in 24 hours. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s European allies are struggling to maintain their unified front of support in anticipation of a US withdrawal of aid under the incoming Trump administration, as well as scepticism from the likes of Hungary’s Viktor Orbán. The war has taken a huge toll on Ukraine. Six million people fled the country and an additional four million people are internally displaced. The country is experiencing increasing levels of poverty and food insecurity and a bill for reconstruction of nearly US$500 billion (£396 billion) and counting. More than 30,000 Ukrainian servicemen were killed in the first two years of the war alone, with countless more wounded and missing. And a conservative estimate is that least 12,000 civilians have been killed and 30,000 injured. After 1,000 days , public disillusionment is becoming evident. Recent Gallup polls make for interesting reading: there is general agreement on the need for the war to end, but far less concord on how to end it . More than half of Ukrainians polled by Gallup (52%) agree that : “Ukraine should seek to negotiate an ending to the war as soon as possible”, while only 38% want the country to “continue fighting until it wins the war”. This is a remarkable shift compared to a year ago, when 63% wanted to continue fighting and 27% were in favour of negotiations. It’s an even starker shift in comparison to 2022 when support for a continuation of fighting stood at 73% and for negotiations at 22%. Importantly, more than half of those supporting negotiations are also open to “making some territorial concessions as a part of a peace deal to end the war”. This suggests that the odds for public support for a Trump-brokered deal among Ukrainians are improving. But this happens at a time when Ukrainians’ confidence in their government is declining and scepticism of its western partners is growing . In 2022, 60% of Ukrainians expressed trust in their government; one year later it was 49%, and in 2024 levels dropped to just 28%. By contrast, banks (92%) and the military (62%) still enjoy overwhelming public confidence. Looking for a way out As a sign of the shifting mood in Ukraine, the country’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, is talking more about an end to the war. He expressed confidence that Trump’s election would bring the war to an end more quickly and emphasised his determination to “do everything possible to end the war next year through talks”. Russian advances are steadily gathering in pace in eastern Ukraine. Institute for the Study of War But this doesn’t mean that Ukrainians are ready yet to settle on terms that Trump might propose and Putin would accept . On the contrary, there is little evidence that Ukraine is ready to give up on key elements of its peace and victory plans – most notably the aim of recovering all Russian-occupied territories and securing Nato membership as part of a package of credible security guarantees. Yet, realising that he needs to tread a fine line between his established vision of peace and victory and the growing pressure to search for an acceptable compromise, Zelensky has floated a third plan: the “ internal resilience plan ”. It’s a less ambitious strategy. The key points are stabilising the front lines and strengthening the country’s defence-industrial sector. If successful, this would create the foundations for keeping Ukraine in the fight against Russia and creating the domestic conditions for Ukraine to survive – at least until acceptable ceasefire terms are on the table. It sends a clear message that under Zelensky’s leadership, the maximum goals outlined above of regaining lost territory and Nato membership continue to guide his government’s policies in the long term. But it doesn’t rule out shorter-term compromises that may be necessary because of a diplomatic push by Trump, a worsening situation at the front, and weakening European resolve – or any combination of those. Playing for time It’s not clear how the two months before Trump’s inauguration will play out. But it is clear that peace negotiations with Russia with things as they stand would carry a greater risk of internal destabilisation in Ukraine. Zelensky’s potential realignment with those who favour negotiation could also create an opening for a serious political challenge from his predecessor, Petro Poroshenko. Poroshenko, who Zelensky replaced as president in 2019, has strongly supported a “no-surrender” stance as leader of the European Solidarity opposition in Ukraine’s parliament. He also runs the Poroshenko Foundation, which claims to have “provided assistance to more than 200 military units” in the form of weapons and equipment. Thus, the rational strategy for Zelensky is to buy time. Confronted by internal hawks and an uncertain and volatile external environment, the Ukrainian president is leaning into the opportunity created by the relaxation of western constraints on strikes against Russia and is preparing the country for more sacrifices. As far as it goes, this strategy makes sense in the short term, despite its inherent risks , including the prospect of savage reprisals from Putin. The challenge for Zelensky and Ukraine in the long term remains the same – how to manage a sustainable transition from war to peace in the face of US pressure, Russian demands and weakening European unity. Stefan Wolff is a past recipient of grant funding from the Natural Environment Research Council of the UK, the United States Institute of Peace, the Economic and Social Research Council of the UK, the British Academy, the NATO Science for Peace Programme, the EU Framework Programmes 6 and 7 and Horizon 2020, as well as the EU's Jean Monnet Programme. He is a Trustee and Honorary Treasurer of the Political Studies Association of the UK and a Senior Research Fellow at the Foreign Policy Centre in London. Tetyana Malyarenko does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

MUNICH, Germany, Dec 3 (Reuters) - Bayern Munich's German Cup hopes were ended with Tuesday's 1-0 loss to visitors Bayer Leverkusen in the round of 16 but the team's energy showed great promise, said coach Vincent Kompany. The Bavarians suffered their first defeat of the season in the league and domestic cup and had keeper Manuel Neuer sent off in the 17th minute with a straight red card. But they still had the better chances in the first half despite being a man down with Kingsley Coman, Leon Goretzka and Konrad Laimer all spurning opportunities. Leverkusen struck against the run of play with substitute Nathan Tella's header in the 69th minute to dash Bayern's hopes. "Fact is we lost and we won't win the Cup this season. But with experience we know this was also a special performance from us," Kompany told a press conference. "If this feeling remains we will win many games but this Cup we cannot win it any more," he said. Kompany is in his first season in charge and his team tops the Bundesliga standings with a four-point advantage over second-placed Eintracht Frankfurt. Bayern have also improved in the Champions League after a rocky start this season. "It is bitter for us. We won't have a good evening," Kompany said. "But if this energy remains then we will win many more games. This team can grow further and we will get our moments." Sign up here. Reporting by Karolos GrohmannEditing by Toby Davis Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. , opens new tab

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The markets are likely to influence the next administration’s decision-making and, occasionally, serve as a check on some of Trump’s most immoderate behaviour. Jeff Sommer The US President-elect follows the markets closely. He bragged frequently about how well stocks performed in his first term in office, and said they had boomed this year in anticipation of his return to the White House. Since Election Day, a great deal of financial analysis has been devoted to one central question: How will the new Trump administration affect the markets? Already a subscriber? Log in Get exclusive reports and insights with more than 500 subscriber-only articles every month $9.90 $9.90/month No contract ST app access on 1 mobile device Subscribe now All subscriber-only content on ST app and straitstimes.com Easy access any time via ST app on 1 mobile device E-paper with 2-week archive so you won't miss out on content that matters to you Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you. Read 3 articles and stand to win rewards Spin the wheel now

A planned expansion of the Batavia Downs hotel is on hold, possibly for as much as a year, officials with Western Regional Off-Track Betting Corp. announced Thursday. Outgoing CEO Henry Wojtaszek said the agency put the 48-room addition on pause after two estimates solicited from Buffalo-based developers came in above expectations. The pause could last six months to a year, he said. According to Wojtaszek, both The Krog Group and Ciminelli Real Estate estimated the project would cost around $16 million. Both offers were far above what the agency had hoped to spend on the project, he said. The announcement of the pause came alongside incoming CEO Byron Brown telling board members he and other leaders had designed a “conservative” budget for 2025. Next year’s spending plan, he said, is focused on keeping costs down and managing a reduction in horse-race betting, a decades-long trend. At the same time, leaders hope to send additional money to the 15 counties and two cities that own the corporation. “Our goal is to increase disbursements,” Brown said. “The plan has been prepared in a very conservative way to give us the opportunity to do that.” The hotel expansion pause follows a March vote by the board to spend $106,000 on architectural plans and a market analysis in preparation for the project. The board voted then to pay Orchard Park-based Bammel Architects $76,000 to design the expansion and $30,000 to Spectrum Gaming Group to evaluate the expansion’s pros and cons. Donated to support the investigative post Double Your Money! Donations of up to $1,000 made by Dec. 31 will be matched. For months, OTB leadership has said the hotel is regularly between 94 and 96 percent occupied, leading them to believe an expansion was necessary. Not expanding the hotel means “we’re limited in our growth,” Chautauqua County board member Vincent Horrigan said. Brown agreed. “That’s one of the reasons why the board was looking at the expansion of the hotel, because the hotel has provided opportunities for additional financial growth of the corporation,” Brown said. The hotel at Batavia Downs has been controversial for nearly a decade. In the spring of 2015, OTB, then under Republican control, voted to sell approximately an acre of land adjacent to the Batavia Downs casino to a group of investors who had joined together as ADK Hospitality, LLC. Among the investors were Kent Frey of Frey Electric Construction and David McNamara, a partner at the Phillips Lytle law firm — both significant Republican donors. Additional investors included Anthony J. Baynes, a former chair of the Erie County Fiscal Stability Authority, and James and John Basil, who own car dealerships. ADK Hospitality spent $5.5 million to build the 84-room hotel, buoyed by $600,000 in tax breaks from the Genesee County Industrial Development Agency. The hotel turned a profit each year until the pandemic. In 2021, OTB bought the hotel for $7.5 million.That purchase, done through a bond, raised concerns with Erie County Comptroller Kevin Hardwick, who has questioned the project for the past two years. Hardwick in July 2022 sent a letter to OTB management indicating he had “serious questions” about the hotel’s development and management, as well as OTB’s eventual purchase of the property. Among Hardwick’s questions: Why would OTB engage a group of investors — many of them big political donors to Republicans — who had never developed a hotel before? Who approached whom? How was the sale price for the land determined? Who initiated OTB’s purchase of the hotel? And who set the price? Wojtaszek, the OTB president and CEO, instructed his staff not to respond to the comptroller’s inquiries, writing in an email that Hardwick’s questions were “designed to harass & intimidate our organization” and the comptroller’s office “can FOIL the documents.” Hardwick’s deputy, Timothy Callan, now represents Erie County on the OTB board and controls the greatest number of votes following last year’s Democratic takeover. Callan, in the spring, voted against plans to study the hotel’s expansion. Investigative Post reporter Geoff Kelly contributed to this story.CONOR McGregor was found by a civil trial jury to have raped and assaulted Nikita Hand. And supporters of the victim have now called for the DPP to reinvestigate the case . The stony-faced multi-millionaire UFC star had nothing to say as he left the High Court in Dublin city centre after the verdict . The jury awarded almost €250,000 in damages to hair colourist Nikita , who said she was “brutally” raped and “battered” by the mixed martial arts star in a Dublin hotel penthouse six years ago. A crying and shaking Ms Hand bowed her head and listened to the verdict surrounded by family, supporters and her boyfriend. McGregor bowed his head and remained seated upon hearing the jury’s decision. However, despite saying nothing as he left the court, the “disappointed” dad-of-four later vowed to appeal the judgment of the jury. He posted on social media : “I will be appealing today’s decision. “The judge’s instruction and the modest award given was for assault, not for aggravated or exemplary damages. “I am disappointed that the jury did not hear all the evidence that the DPP reviewed. I am with my family now, focused on my future.” Ms Hand is to be awarded €60,000 in general damages and €188,000 in special damages, totalling €248,000, said Mr Justice Alexander Owens. The court has already been told that ‘special’, or medical damages, have been agreed by both sides. The jury of eight women and four men found former hairdresser Ms Hand had been assaulted by the UFC fighter following the three-week civil trial. A second man, James Lawrence , of Rafter’s Road, Drimnagh, Dublin , did not assault Ms Hand, the jury found. The judge sent the jury out to begin their deliberations just after 3pm on Thursday, before sending them home after around an hour. They resumed at 10am today before announcing a verdict after six hours and ten minutes. During the three-week trial , McGregor took the stand in his own defence , telling the jury that he had “consensual” sex with Nikita Hand, which he described as “enthusiastic, athletic, prolonged and vigorous” and carried out in a “multitude” of positions. Ms Hand alleged that McGregor - once the highest-earning sports person in the world - “brutally raped and battered” her in the hotel penthouse six years ago. She said McGregor wouldn’t take no for an answer, pinned her down and choked her three times before raping her, leaving her with bruising. The next morning she had to have a tampon removed by a doctor in hospital using a forceps. The doctor described her as having a multitude of injuries which he categorised as “moderate to severe”. Ms Hand sought damages from McGregor and James Lawrence arising from the events of December 9, 2018, at the Beacon Hotel. Mr Lawrence claimed that he twice had consensual sex with Ms Hand after McGregor left the hotel. Ms Hand had said that Mr Lawrence’s claim of consensual sex was “lies”. Both McGregor and Mr Lawrence denied the allegations. Ms Hand said she only discovered Mr Lawrence’s claim that he had sex with her when the defendant gave a statement to gardai as a witness to events on the night. Mr Lawrence was found not to have assaulted Ms Hand. McGregor sat with fiancee Dee Devlin , family and supporters towards the rear of the court today in what was his partner’s first appearance at the three-week trial. Ms Devlin and the former fighter’s mum Margaret sat alongside McGregor in court as the panel delivered their ruling. The sport star’s father Tony, sister Aoife and his brother-in-law, Terry Kavanagh, who is married to Conor’s sister, Erin, also turned up at the High Court for the verdict. Reacting to the decision, Daithi Doolan, the Sinn Fein councillor who lives in Drimnagh which neighbours McGregor’s native Crumlin, said the “overwhelming majority” of the community and the country stand by Nikita. By Cate McCurry, PA WHAT started as a fun night out for a Christmas work party, ended six years later inside the High Court in Dublin, with Nikita Hand winning her case against Conor McGregor. The Dublin woman and the Irish sports star knew each other from growing up in the same area of south-west Dublin and socialising in similar circles. Throughout the three-week civil case, McGregor and Ms Hand sat feet away from each other inside the small Court 24. The mother-of-one sat next to her partner, Gary, for each of the 12 days of the case – he often had his arm around her as the court heard details of McGregor’s version of events. While the mixed martial arts fighter described the mood throughout their time in the penthouse suite as “happy” and “playful” and “full of energy”, Ms Hand spoke of feeling afraid for her life. At one point as he gave evidence, McGregor leaned into the microphone and said Ms Hand’s character was someone who was “joyed and excited” and “having a good night”. He recalled the night in detail, telling the court his “story never weaned”. McGregor said he was shocked when Ms Hand went to police about what had happened in room 715 of the now-closed Beacon Hotel, that he had wanted to take a microphone to the top of the mountains to shout about his version of events. Ms Hand gave evidence for two-and-a-half days, her voice shaking as she told the jury she had struggled to break free from McGregor, how she had been attacked, and how she thought she would never see her young daughter again. She tightened her hand around tissues and at times she was reminded to speak up and into the microphone as her voice became barely audible. The sharply divergent accounts of what happened on December 9 2018 were laid out before the jury. “One side or the other is telling lies,” Justice Alexander Owens told the panel. The court was packed with members of the public every day of the case, with some people attending almost every day. On one occasion, Justice Owens ordered those who could not get a seat in the upstairs gallery to leave. He reminded them that courts did not have to accommodate every person who wanted to watch proceedings. Members of the public squeezed into the public balcony to hear what all parties had to say. Among those seated in the public gallery was a man with his young son dressed in his school uniform, others had shopping bags, while some took packed lunches – pensioners and teenagers sat side-by-side. People in the front row of the public balcony could be seen leaning over the edge of the rails to look down at McGregor, who sat directly below them. Sitting next to McGregor was his father, Tony McGregor, who was in court every day, including during the few hours his son said he could not attend due to an “upset stomach”. For the most part, McGregor stared straight ahead, sometimes glancing to his left where the jury sat. On Friday, he was accompanied in court by his partner Dee Devlin, his parents, sister, brother-in-law and niece. His mother rubbed his arm as they waited for the jury to return their verdicts. John Gordon, senior counsel for Ms Hand, had previously told the jury that they had been subjected to “arrogant, distasteful, dishonest testimony” by the Irish sportsman. In his closing speech earlier this week, Mr Gordon described McGregor’s alleged behaviour as “savage, coward and devious”. He said McGregor had colluded with his friend James Lawrence to concoct a story that they had had consensual sex with the hairdresser in the penthouse. McGregor, who is reported to be worth around €190 million, will now have to pay out more than €248,603.60, not including legal costs. Speaking outside court, Ms Hand said: “I want to show Freya (Ms Hand’s daughter) and every other girl and boy that you can stand up for yourself if something happens to you – no matter who the person is – and justice will be served.” Ms Hand lived in Drimnagh earlier this year, but moved after her home was invaded by masked men in June. Mr Doolin said she was “brave” and hoped the case outcome brought her some vindication and closure to a “very traumatic experience for her”. He told The Irish Sun: “We need to remember that behind all the hype and the headline is a woman who’s been traumatized and I hope that she’s able to move on with her life to some extent. “I think the overwhelming majority of people in Drimnagh — I live in Drimnagh, I’m a resident — and indeed people right across Ireland, supported her and are glad that she can hopefully now move on and deal with that trauma. “Because I’m sure the fire going to the DPP and coming back and then her having to take a civil action is very deeply traumatic for herself and her loved ones and I hope they can now get peace.” Ms Hand told the trial she felt “absolutely devastated and let down” when the DPP told her that no criminal prosecution would be taken against McGregor. She sought a review, but the DPP’s decision was upheld. Its director reviewed the file and said that the case was very complex and there was no reasonable prospect of conviction for either McGregor or Lawrence, who was not found liable today. Doolan said: “Obviously the threshold is very different, both for the DPP and the civil case. “I think if there’s an avenue open to the DPP, well then I would encourage them to go down that avenue. But I’m not a legal expert. I can only judge on the evidence presented to me. “I know the evidence that the DPP is slightly different than a civil case but it doesn’t detract from the fact that she has got justice.” Mr Doolin added: “She’s been vindicated and I hope she can move on with her life and deal with that trauma.” The threshold in a criminal case is higher than a civil case. In criminal matters, a jury must be satisfied beyond reasonable doubt while in a civil case, it is on the balance of probabilities.

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